Look, you're absolutely right that Trump can win. He has:

- A built-in electoral college advantage.

- A captive Fox-news-built audience.

- The willingness to do extra-legal and illegal things to win (and an Attorney General who'll protect him as he does these things).

- A set of existing and new voter suppression tactics (old-fashioned intimidation, voter roll purges, and the destruction of the USPS).

-A core of Americans who see him as the last best chance to keep America racist.

I would submit, though, that Trump-hatred is nullifying factor for the enthusiasm of the Trump base. The blandness and practiced, unexciting competence of a Biden/Harris ticket? That's a feature, not a bug, for many Americans who are sick of the circus.